In the post below I made a bet: Barack Obama will be on the Democratic Party ticket for 2008, either in the slot for President or Vice-President. Seed took me up on that (and a slightly expanded) bet. Which is fine. But this happens to fit another one of my personal interests: prediction markets.

Prediction markets are trading mechanisms for options on future events, times, values, etc. In this case, the future being traded is Obama being on the Dem ticket. You can buy shares of either Yes or No. The idea is that you'd buy the shares in the quantities that correspond to your conviction about the event. It's just like actual trading (you can buy shares of BOTH, if you want, to cover), with the added benefit of being able to read the price of the option as a percentage. That is, if the shares were selling at $50, you could read that as saying the traders in the market believe, on average, that there is a 50/50 chance on the outcome.

I've built a market like this at the site Inklings Markets, which lets you set these things up in a snap. And it's open to the public:

Obama on the Dem Ticket Market

I've not used this much, but I think if you head over and register, you can start trading. You get $5K in play money. Spend it all on the Obama market, or elsewhere. I'd love to see a ton of people involved, so spread the word if you're interested.