February 28, 2008

New Predictions: Don't count Billiary Out

Posted by seed @ 11:12 AM

For those keeping score, and quite honestly who cannot? The democratic primaries this year are a combination of political strategery and current election cycle futility that of which has never been seen before. Who can stop watching? Here's an update:

Billiary and The Man from Fantasy Island are separated by about 160 pledged delegates, the later has a plurality. Looking to March 4th, Clinton still has a significant lead in Ohio (141 delegate total) and in Rhode Island (21). Obama is pulling away in Texas (193) and has a big lead in Vermont (15).

What is important here is the spread, and not which candidate wins a majority in each contest. If things stay consistent with the polling data Super Tuesday Two is either a wash, or a net win for Clinton. She has a bigger lead in OH that will most likely absorb whatever minimal edge Obama gets out of TX. VT is the lesser of all the prizes so it gives Obama very little. Clinton gets a bigger gain from her more sizable margin in RI.

With me so far? Good. The question after Tuesday remains the same. How long will Billiary stay in the race if she is still in striking distance? Keep in mind that she has a decent lead in PA (188). If she slows Obama's momentum on Tuesday she could look to make a push towards the end of April. It's not hard to see her hanging around by being within a 100 or so delegates, with the Super Delegates still on the table.

If things go badly this coming Tuesday, I say she bails by the end of the month. For that to happen, Obama has to win big in TX and come out just even in OH. Then she's down by a sizable margin and, more importantly, has no mo'. Even considering her personality, I do not see her taking the party down with her.

It's possible that the wife of the honorary first black president could actually lose to the first black president. And, quite honestly, I love it, for more reasons than just having to get a good friend loaded.

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