New Predictions
Posted by Savage Henry @ 11:23 AM
Note, the bets still stand. I made the bet, and I accepted the terms. I'll live with the outcome.
But now I think I might have been wrong. I'm no longer so sure Obama will be in the White House. And I say this in the midst of his increasing popularity and "momentum".
Why? Because the Clintons are, if nothing else, two of the best back room politicians in decades. These are people who can steal law practice documents, hide them in plain sight, and tell people about it and still not get damaged. This is a woman that spent months telling all the best and most experienced people in the party that she was the only one who was right about health care reform. And when the travesty of policy was announced and laughed at, they were still the most powerful couple in politics. Billy has spent months lying about Obama, and the worst thing that's happened is some people have said "Gee, I think Hillary should focus on herself more." Seriously, these people are able to get the party to line up behind them no matter what kind of shitstorm they cook up.
And boy, do they not like Obama. I had no idea the extent to which the Clinton campaign would make things personal. Which leads me to believe that they will use their influence to win the delegate count, most likely by getting the party to seat the candidates from Florida and Michigan. Sure, some people might argue that she "stole" the nomination, but that won't bother the Dems, who will hoist her up just so Papa Bear doesn't make their lives rough. Meanwhile, Hillary will toss over Obama just out of spite, no matter what those around her try to suggest, keeping him off the ticket. Which, after all, might be just fine since with all this support, Obama has seen that he could well be on the road to the White House, if not now, then next time. Why take second fiddle to someone who might shit on your reputation when you just have to wait a bit, and make clean run?
Which means that there's a good chance we'll have a president who cried her way into office.
At least, that's how I'm seeing it today. Tomorrow, who knows?
Comments
I can recall a time when the sentiment was that voters wished they had more choice. All my elections, dating back to HWB v Bubba, have left me thinking our choices were lacking greatly. This could not be better exemplified than it was in 2000 with Bush v Gore. Of all the great minds in our country, we get those two as choices for the highest office.
Skip ahead to the '08 election and we've had roughly 20 candidates across (no T in that word) two camps. I suppose some would say that we have plenty of choices, which we do, or did. But I cannot help think that our choices are still not very good.
For the Republicans at least we had candidates that have a solid resume: two governors, and two long-term congressman. Regardless of your persuasions, an argument against the Red candidates' fitness for the job is baseless.
Considering the Dems is another story. The top three candidates featured three senators, one of which in the former sense, another of which served a single year before hitting the campaign trail. And the third is using her experience by proxy, that of her husband's executive service.
My first thought in regards goes along the lines of thinking there's got to be a better counter-weight to the Republicans. My choice against the Red ticket isn't even comparable. Seriously, none of the Dem candidates even deserve a single moment of contemplation. My next thought is that the old-standard Dems have to be kicking themselves. The Biden's and the Reid's and so on are eclipsed by a junior senator that has zero experience, and another junior senator whose claim to fame is a complete failure of healthcare reform policy and having her husband shove a stoggie in the twat of an intern. Awesome. I can hardly make a choice.
So, at first, I thought there was merit to having a wide field, albeit in an election cycle that has gotten far out of control. But after seeing the choices that have risen to the top, I'm nauseated by the public swell that has risen around so little. My only consolation now is in watching the circus that is going on in the Blue camp.
With that, I think you are pretty accurate in your estimate of Billiary's abilities. If she pulls away it is all moot. But, with the front-loading of the Dem. Primaries and the fact that it is a dead heat, it's hard to see a large gap developing, unless the man from fantasy island really starts to pack 'em in. If she gets the nomination, it will be really hard for her to ignore the strength of Obama's support. If she does she risks tossing the party into a frenzy. If she does not, and offers Obama a 2nd seat, she's got to stomach the guy for four years and all his supporters.
But like I said before, it will be Hilliary and Obama will not be on the ticket.
And either way, McCain can muster enough support to overtake either of them. With Hilliary, she's got way too much baggage. And with the the man from fantasy island, he desn't have enough of anything, unless you consider vacuous cheerleading counts for something.
Posted by: seed | February 15, 2008 3:02 PM
If HIllary gets the nod, then I may vote for a Republican for the first time in my life
Posted by: ~Easy | February 17, 2008 7:55 PM