Anybody watching this year's election cycle has got to be starring blankly at the headlines as the come up. Even I have to admit I am shocked at the events as well. The bet I made with Savage a ways back was a long shot. I was skeptical of the Obama candidacy, but if it wasn't fake cash, I would have put my real money on the Democratic ticket for January 2009. Fast-forward to now and the race is a dead heat, with the unelectable party giving the unbeatable candidate a run for her his money.

So how did that happen? Well, from the way I see it, there have been three major bets investments that McCain has made over the last year that have drastically changed the political scene. Each one has tested the Democratic party as a whole and the junior senator from Illinois. In each case, the stock that McCain bought has paid huge dividends, and at the same time, allowed Obama to box himself into a corner.

Bet One : Iraq & the Surge
This is an easy starter. McCain in the fall of 2007 was dead in the water. At the beginning of the year he invested heavily in the Surge. That early in the election cycle, and the fact that he was aligning himself with Bush so closely, makes me think this is the most a-political action of the three. McCain holds the same theories about military action as other Vietnam-era politicians. Powell's doctrine of reluctant, but overwhelming force when necessary could easily be McCain's. That is the baseline for his support for the surge in early 2007. It was wildly unpopular to invest more resources into the Iraqi cause. If it turned out to be unsuccessful, his campaign was dead.

And that is where he found himself in late 2007, dead in the water while Mitt was running an eighteen wheeler filled with cash through the primary with the back doors wide-ass open. Huckabee was solidifying the conservative base. McCain drifted.

Then people started to notice that Iraq wasn't in the news so much, and the election came back to John. Mitt and his cash couldn't buy the delegates, and Huckabee wasn't a national face. After improved news from Petraeus, McCain started to pull into the lead. After a galactic miscalculation from Rudy in Florida, Mac was back.

With Obama staking his candidacy on Iraq withdrawal, he was forced to move to center with the recent turn of events. My guess is that there was also a come-to-Jesus moment when he started to get real intelligence briefings afforded presidential candidates. Either way, Obama had to step closer to McCain's original position. Incidentally, Obama's Iraq bet paid initial gains, but left him holding a worthless stock. As for the Democratic party itself, their main message has been removed from the country's conversation. What got them through the primaries was not enough for the summer season. If the party trashes Iraq any more they risk looking like the party of unavoidable defeat. If they shift to Afghanistan, they look like they are pushing the goal post.

Bet Two : Palin
I go back and forth on my stance on the issue of whether or not Obama should have named Hilary as VP, after she was eliminated from contention. My gut tells me that I would not have picked her either. The Clinton two-step would be too much for a threesome. JFK took LBJ, in spite of their discord, to win Texas and the South. Hillary comes with a significant voting block. But the Bubba-effect would be too much to handle after getting into the Oval Office. Johnson was put out to pasture. Clinton (both of them) would have never gone away and done book readings.

Add to that the fact that Obama didn't seem to need the help. To him it seemed that the Hilary supporters were going to vote for him despite Hilary's fate. The exit polling data from the late primaries showed some glaring short comings between Obama and the blue-collar Dems. His gaffe's at the time didn't help. I bought into the notion that Obama was not strong where he needed to be strong, and that would come out in a national election. Either way, I still would not have picked her, then.

But if I were to pick Hilary, I would have done it immediately after the June primaries. Let Hilary have her come-to-Jesus moment and then ride the Immaculate Ticket through to November. Some voters would have hated the notion. Enough would have supported it and turned it into a landslide.

When Obama chose Biden he left a gaping hole in the change ticket. After a summer that revealed Obama coming back to the center on a number of issues: Iraq, Gun Control, FISA, campaign finance, etc. Obama chooses the worst candidate. Not only is Biden lackluster, he has a treasure chest of gaffes with eternal dividends. At least Evan Bayh was an unknown, boring yes, but definitely an unknown. Not only does the Obama/Biden ticket appear to be upside down, Biden cannot hold a message for more than ten seconds. He may be a great guy and somebody that is very appealing in person. His nearly thirty years of congressional experience have taught him nothing about the ten-second sound-byte.

McCain drove a truck named Palin through that gaping hole. I was leaning towards Lieberman for my first pick. Hard to offer more change than a cross-party ticket. And then, after the Biden selection, I was thinking Kay Baley Hutchinson. But I was not that familiar with her.

Savage and I have this discussion that we gnaw on once in a while. I've mentioned it in previous comment threads. It goes something like this: The candidates we currently have have been so far removed from the original idea that we would hardly recognize a Washington or Jefferson if they were to run today. Minus the white wigs, their type of politics would not get very far today, even if they were to consider it worth their time. The current election process eliminates the candidates we want. We have moved very far away from for the people, by the people, and of the people... That may be pessimistic.

Palin is of the people, about as much as you can get. The nation has noticed that, despite all the shit that has been thrown her way. Her selection is a bet that has paid enormous dividends for McCain. The timing is even better.

With Obama coming off his convention speech, we were supposed to see our first real polling data. Instead, that following Friday, everybody was focused on Sara Palin, and Obama's selection of Joe Biden. The immediate trouncing by the media of Palin didn't help matters. Either way, Team Obama got smoked by McCain. With her selection: the base was solidified, the electorate was energized, and a stark light was cast on the Obama/Biden ticket. Suddenly the change ticket looked very normal, and the same ticket looked very different.

Obama had no choice but to attack a working mother, with a family of five, and a resume that is very similar to his own. In doing so, he is oddly attacking the VP selection. If he does nothing she runs away. The race was on.

With the selection of a female candidate being Republican, the democratic party's ownership of women's liberation comes into question. All the card carrying dems are beside themselves that the first women VP candidate since Ferraro is pro-life, and religious. Women's Liberation has been turned on its head. If Palin is the next VP she has a clearer shot the presidency than Hillary.

Bet Three : Wallstreet
Today's events and the most recent financial meltdown are amazing, no doubt. McCain has played them perfectly. Here's why:

With the pending bail-out legislation in DC, by Friday of last week there was an enormous opportunity to be had. Something was going to go down. Each candidate made statements regarding the market activity, and Federal action. McCain's was first, and weak. Obama's was academic and lethargic. By Friday the Fed had announced a plan, but no details. The market reacted positively. By Monday, there were still no details and the market dipped.

I immediately discount the notion of insider trading by McCain. Meaning: I don't think he had any more advantage of getting advanced notice of any significant progress on what was looking more and more like a stalled bail-out bill. Obama is a member of the majority party in the Senate. If the Senate knew it was going to go down quick, He would have had just as much notice as McCain. Still there was no call to action by Obama. And that presented another gaping hole for Mac.

Another great political guess? A gut feeling? Maybe an inner call to duy? Who knows. But I cannot see where else McCain would have gone with his reaction to the pending financial crisis. He went right at it as fast as he could. By taking the immediate action of suspending his campaign he immediately takes the initiative. By inviting Obama he appears bi-partisan. By getting back to the Senate Chamber immediately he looks like a legislator that happens to be in a campaign. Obama, by taking the safe approach, looks like the opposite: a candidate that happens to be a legislator. This will play out in the polls, I think the difference is obvious.

Basically, Obama's reaction to McCain's call to suspend the campaign until the crisis is addressed amounts to this: McCain asks Obama to play fetch. Obama declines but says that he likes to chase sticks. George Bush tosses the biggest stick he can and Obama chases it like a dog.

See, Obama should have taken the wind out of the sails and said he has a plan that will release the log-jam and he is bringing it to Washington. His bags are already packed. Blame a staffer for not booking the flight early enough. He will be meeting Mac in DC. Instead, he tries to call McCains attempt a stunt. Basically, Obama said if he was needed, to call him, and he would not be bothered with a photo-op. Bush's summoning calls Obama's bluff and again, makes Obama's initial judgement a point of concern. See also: Wright, Ayers, Rezco, Surge, FISA.

If Obama had been an active member of the Senate he would have known that a deal was close, or would have had taken a chance to affect a solution. Instead he passed. I do find it odd that Pelosi and Reid did not call Obama and tell him that they were very close to closing the deal. If it turns out that the bill is signed before the end of the week, everybody will be asking why McCain guessed right and Obama hesitated.

Mac wasn't involved in drafting the bill that will most likely pass by the week's end. But he did see it as an opportunity to take the initiative. McCain took a relatively safe bet and it is going to be another huge gain. The worst scenario is that he looks like he over reacted in considering delaying the debate, which considering the current financial situation, is quite understandable. The best outcome, has Mac leading Obama into Washington to watch the President sign the bail-out bill, with time enough to spare the sacred debate. I bet Washington finds that McCain is already there.